Makhmudov is a very well-picked opponent for a number of reasons. He looks and sounds the part – a strong, aggressive and powerful Russian – but stylistically he’s kind of perfect for Fury.
What Makhmudov does is relatively simple. He lacks agility and punch variation. Don’t get me wrong, if he clocks you, it hurts and you will feel it – but for Fury, someone who’s always on the move and hard to pin down, an opponent who is a bit heavier on his feet is the right fit.
If I were in Makhmudov’s corner, I’d say rush him – not blindly, but get close, get on his chest and get in front of him. Makhmudov is a big, weighty, strong guy and he needs to use that. At range, 100 out of 100 times he will lose – Fury will just pick him off and break him down.
His best bet is to get close and just keep working. Body, arms, shoulders, head – wherever. Just keep working for 12 rounds and see if that long lay-off takes a toll on Tyson.
There’s always that concern about complacency, and we saw with Francis Ngannou that Fury switched off and got caught. At this stage of Fury’s career, there’s no space for error. He has to get it right. But I think he’ll have learned his lesson there.
Fury says he’s training himself for this fight – whether that’s true or not, we don’t know. He knows his body better than anyone, and while an elite fighter can do that, whether it’s the best course of action is another question.
We’re here to find out what version of Fury we’re going to see – the fleet-footed mover, or someone who has made a conscious decision to flatten his feet and rely more on upper-body movement.
But I do think Fury wins on points – decisive, pretty clean and pretty comfortable. Not easy, but comfortable.
If he does lose, though, I feel like that’s the end of the road for the Gypsy King. I can’t see him re-climbing the ranks and building himself back up.
He probably should retire in that scenario – but knowing boxing and Fury, I don’t think he would – he wouldn’t want to leave the sport like that.
Fabio Wardley was speaking to BBC Sport boxing journalist Kal Sajad.
